13th International Ruhr Energy Conference - INREC 2024, Essen (Germany). 27-28 August 2024
Summary:
Residual Demand Curves (RDCs) in electricity markets represent the market-clearing price as a function of the energy traded. Being able to generate accurate scenarios of these curves is critical for market agents' strategic planning.
For every hourly auction, one of these curves is observed, hence, forming a functional time series (FTS), i.e. a sequence of functions observed over time. Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has emerged as a methodology for exploring and modeling these kinds of data, known as functional data. [...]
Spanish layman's summary:
Se propone un nuevo modelo probabilístico basado en técnicas no-paramétricas de datos funcionales para generar escenarios de Curvas de Demanda Residual en mercados eléctricos. Validado en el mercado ibérico, mejora la optimización de recursos para los agentes.
English layman's summary:
A new probabilistic model based on functional data non-parametric techniques is proposed to generate scenarios of Residual Demand Curves in electricity markets. Validated on the Iberian market, it enhances market agents' ability to optimize resources.
Keywords: electricity markets, forecasting, functional data analysis
Publication date: 2024-08-27.
Citation:
G. Mestre, J. Portela, A. Muñoz, E. Alonso, Probabilistic functional forecasting of Residual Demand Curves in electricity markets, 13th International Ruhr Energy Conference - INREC 2024, Essen (Germany). 27-28 August 2024.
